The Les Sables-Horta-Les Sables race was another good example of how the newer Class40s perform. The first leg showed the first generation boat within 4 hours of the newer designs, over 5.5 days. The wind was behind and there was a big patch of light wind toward the end. The second leg was mostly reaching and, over 5 days, the newer designs put one day over the older ones. I was watching the two Akilaria RC1 that are for sale. One finished 8th overall, with the other finishing 12th.
Over the past month a few more boats came up for sale from the brokerage of Owen & Clarke. The boat in Hong-Kong is under offer. I did not see any price reduction for the other boats.
Other than the above there’s not much to report. My wife and I saw the Maiden documentary. Although I’ve been thinking about my RTW project for a while, this documentary reminded me that I have this in me. Tears welled up a few times during the movie.
In a RTW trip, there are many unknowns and the non negligible possibility of hardships, injury and maybe worse. Overcoming that anxiety is still a work in process. A couple days ago I felt that maybe I was getting closer to being “ready inside”. It was not a feeling of confidence, more one of being at peace with the risks, the uncertainty.
A boat will come along … And we will sail out … and back.
I am one week behind schedule with my regular posts. There’s a simple reason for that. Nothing of importance has happened. It looks like the boat in Hong Kong is 99% old. That was the most “affordable” Class40 in reasonable condition. All things considered this is for the best. Managing this boat ‘s refit remotely, in a land I do not know, would have likely been catastrophic.
Other opportunities will come by
The Les Sables – Horta – Les Sables race is in under way. The starting conditions are fantastic for the newer Class40 designs. The screenshot below perfectly highlights how much faster the newer boats are. The leading boat (1) shows a boat speed almost 25% higher than the older boat (11). Two boats in the racing fleet are for sale, with one signed up for the TJV. Both are Akiliria RC1 that had been prepared for the RdR 2018. One did not start and the other had to stop because his forestay broke.
Les Sables – Horta: check out the speed difference between these two Class40. Old vs new.
I’m keeping an eye out on the race to see how well they’re doing. Other than the above there’s not much to report. I’m not ready yet to call it off on the Class40 boats. I look daily for what comes up on Yachtworld.com, craigslist and other boat boards. Nothing consequential has materialized there yet either. Waiting …
SIRIUS EVENEMENTS has announced a double-handed race for Class40 sailboats. It is quite an exciting development and I encourage readers to check out their press release and race plan. I had heard that there were ongoing conversations about an RTW race for the Class40. I had even heard that there were possibly two events brewing. So far only one has been announced and I think it’s likely to be the only one.
Although a RTW race, the course appears to be laid back, compared to a Vendee Globe or even Open40/Class40 predecessors such as the Around Alone and Global Ocean Race races. It will have 6 legs and will take almost 2 years to complete. You read that right: 2 years!
I’m not sure what to think of this. Can you imagine the middle aged husband with 2 kids saying: “honey, I’m going sailing, I’ll be back in two years”? It’s certainly not for my budget; it’s also not what I aspire to do. I wonder what sort of pressure it will put on the used Class40 boats market, if any.
In other news
Other than the news above, the owner of Anasazi Girl changed his price to $80,000, which is $25,000 more than I can afford for his boat. I’ve been in touch with one guy in Hong Kong about the boat out there. The prospect of managing the refit to sail that boat to San Francisco is quite daunting. Impulse #25 had signed up for the Bermuda One Two, but he turned around due to a blown solent and possibly mainsail damage/performance issues. That’s too bad; I was really looking forward to his progress (he was behind the other 4 Class40s that had signed up but by not much: I think 3 miles over 40 when I last checked). It does highlight the problem with (un)used boats: what’s going to break next?
For the foreseeable future, my sailing plans are crewing on the following boats: a moonlight marathon in San Francisco Bay (likely light air) on a J-92, another race in the Bay on a Farr 30, maybe a race to Half Moon Bay on an Olson 34, and the LongPac in a Cal 2-27 (pictured below, 6 years younger): a busy month of June/July.
After a flurry of activity a couple weeks ago, this past week was calm. I went to see Webb Chiles’ presentation at the Richmond Yacht Club. That was good fun and inspiring. On the same day, at the suggestion of a fellow SSS’er friend, I visited the Berkeley Marine Center. She thought I should share my plans with Cree Partridge. And so I did. With the boatyard’s staff having their lunch, I squared my butt in my little chair and proceeded to spill the beans about my ambitions.
To put things in perspective, on one side you have this guy who knows not much and claims he’ll do one of the hardest thing in solo sailing with an inadequate budget (me), and on the other side, you have this crew who’s been around and back, and then out again on oceans, with a vast amount of sailing experience. I felt naked as I proceeded. I had no plan for this meeting so I just went with the flow of my thoughts at the time. It was a good exercise. I don’t like sharing about this project with fellow sailors or anyone for that matter. It’s obvious that for now this is all just a pipe dream, and I don’t like the idea that I am to a certain extent a bouffon, more likely to make a fool of himself than to set a new world record. So I had resisted her invitation to visit with Cree.
Plant a seed
In any case, that is done and maybe something will come out of this. I’d welcome the opportunity to get support from professionals. As we were standing in the open hull of a carbon 40 footer racer being built, I was thinking to myself: so that’s what it’s like to be a pro-sailor building a custom boat with sponsor money. Just for that experience, I think it was totally worth it. I guess that’s what one feels when you get to the big stage, but you’re really only there to set the mic stand for the performer … We also got to see other very interesting boatyard projects.
California Condor, Antrim designed Class 40 built by BMC
That’s all for now. Things are in suspend mode for a month or so. I must admit the work grind is taking its toll these days …
I said I’d try to post weekly so here’s an update. I like our logo. I think my wife did a great job with it (s**t, I sound like a prominent politician!). I’m not sure what to do with it for now. Maybe try a T-Shirt. Our website is getting very little traffic, with most of it coming from the SSS’s website. Our GoFundMe campaign saw a small donation.
Our logo …
Two more Class40 boats went on the market for sale. This brings the total of Class40 boats on the market to 31; there are also 9 available for charter. 4 sold in 2018; 9 sold in 2017 (likely to folks who wanted to do the Route du Rhum 2018, which saw a record 53 Class40 boats registered, with 34 finishing); 5 sold in 2016. It’s a puzzle, ain’t it? More boats get listed than sell, but the prices remain fairly steady, especially at the bottom end, which is where I lie in wait.
Oh, and the broker selling an Open 40, with whom I had been in contact since I think early 2018, reached out asking whether I was still interested. That boat would be a good choice too. It has been for sale since 2013 I think, when it was listed for 250k. It is now still listed for 100k and there is a possibility that the price will continue to come down. I offered 55k and he told me to go away.
Recent news indicate that the boat market is not being replenished by buyers in the younger strata of the pyramid age. Baby boomers continue to buy, mainly upgrading to bigger yachts. But the younger generations are not stepping in. This “should” mean a few things. First, boat prices “should” come down. Second, when I’ll want to sell whatever boat I acquire, the market will have shrunk even further. Regardless, boat prices seem to hold on, with fairly dated boats in need of major refit still listed for over 100k!
I wonder how it feels to be a seller, stuck between “If I hold on my price maybe the right buyer will show up” and “Every day that passes the boat loses value and costs me more”. Holding to a 40 feet boat here in San Francisco is about $6,000 just in berth fees. All that rationalizing is useless. It all comes down to me identifying a boat I can make work within my budget and making an offer.
There is one more thing to consider: labor and parts in the boat industry are skyrocketing. Here in San Francisco Bay hourly rates have hit $125/hr, most likely reflecting the high cost structure of operating a boatyard and the reduction in skilled workers. This would tend to make the value of a used sailboat even less.
Let’s put the wallet aside and talk about feelings too. I’m not sure if it’s clear to you but this project is a major undertaking. To put thing in perspective, I’ll use the usual anecdote that more people have gone to space than have circumnavigated solo non-stop aboard a small sailboat. Of course, there’s the natural elimination factor of “Why would anyone want to do that?!?!”. Still, you have to put this in contrast with the fact that there are 7 billion humans on this planet. And that sailing has been going on for a very long time.
Putting aside a few conversations, so far, this has been a solo undertaking, with a wife who is openly opposed to my undertaking this journey. There’s a lot of friction. I’m internalizing a lot of s**t for now. I’m not sure what is going to come out the other side. Overcoming internal, family and social pressure is sometimes the biggest hurdle to accomplishing something. Maybe that’s what it means to be an adult. No one is there to cajole me into success. I have to visualize myself aboard the boat in the middle of the ocean, experiencing a true connection with Nature to keep going … But the reality is: I’m not sure how long hope is going to keep me going. Sometimes I think that maybe I should just buy another small ULDB and keep trying the SHTP every couple of years. But then the cost of shipping the boat back brings the hard cost of these projects back forefront.
I don’t have much news this week. I did work on the website and updated this page that talks about what I call the human factor. I think it’s an interesting read.
If you’re reading this, one thing that’s pushing these Class40 boats outside my budget is the delivery fee. Most boats are at least 6,000 miles away. Shipping, trucking or sailing ends up being expensive, in the order of $30,000. If you know of someone who’d be interested in delivering (for a tiny fee or for free) a Class40 to San Francisco, or anywhere on the West Coast, even Hawai’i would work, let me know. Ports of departure could be France, UK, Adelaide (Australia), Hong Kong, Tenerife, etc. It’s not a cruise, far from it. These boats are as spartan as can be! I’ve been reaching to sailing buddies to see if anyone’s interested, with limited success so far.
Although the light at the end of the tunnel is not showing up yet I am trying to remain positive about the boat search.
There’s nowhere to hide. Odds are not particularly in my favor. For sure, my project of circumnavigating Earth on a small sailboat faces many hurdles. I’m not delusional. I know it. I estimate the odds of starting the circumnavigation to be 1 in 10 (for no particular reason, and the odds of finishing without stops 1 in 4 (so far only one Class40 in 4 attempts has succeeded in completing a circumnavigation solo non stop). That’s about 2.5% of success. In other words, success is marginal at best.
0.0125%
I’m reading Dodge Morgan’s book “The Voyage of American Promise“. In there he mentioned D.H. (Nobby) Clark of the Guinness Book of World Records. He would have said: “Ninety five percent of those who say they are going to sail around the world do not get their boats in the water; ninety five percent of those who get their boats in the water do not get underway; and ninety five percent of those who depart do not complete a circumnavigation.” That’s a 0.0125% chance of success. Not great by any standard.
Fifty Fifty
Those are only anecdotal odds. Let’s look at some facts. I think of this project along three axis: the boat, the skipper and luck. There’s no way out of simply being lucky. There are too many risks over which one has no control: collision with submerged containers or a whale, freak weather events, a rogue wave, catastrophic failure of equipment, debilitating sickness, etc. Plans can be devised to help manage the dangerous situation; experience and good planning come in handy here. For example, having antibiotics aboard can help control an appendicitis. But most likely a stop would be required to prevent the situation from spiraling down. Although, here, I must admit that some of the first solo circumnavigators had some serious grit about them (read Vito Dumas’ book; he’s not the only one).
It is hard to quantify the odds of not being unlucky. Looking at the Vendée Globe results for the past 5 years, with top professional sailors and very large budgets, I can see that about 45% of the sailors have to retire.
Fifty fifty. That sounds like a great boat name.
Now, that’s only for boats who started the Vendée Globe. In effect, we also need to quantify the odds of actually leaving in a well prepared boat, with a well prepared skipper. And that’s an all different conversation …
The Sequoia Yacht Club, based in Redwood City, CA, USA, was hosting their kick off dinner for the summer racing series today. I was also invited to speak and present my story as a participant in the Singlehanded Transpacific Yacht Race. I have been racing with the club members for the past few months, as crew on SP’s boat Frequent Flyer. Everyone was welcoming, encouraging and good-natured. I had a wonderful time chatting with the club members. Presenting my story brought back good memories. I must admit, every time I watch this little video, I want to go again! And for a moment I do toy with the idea of buying a very small sailboat and try to do this again in 2020.
The club facility is well organized and all the equipment works. The chef did a fantastic job with the menu and set aside a plate for me to enjoy after the talk. It was really a good night and I’m thankful for everyone at SYC. Here are the Google slides of the presentation I did. It has a bunch of links as well.
Crowdfunding?
My wife and I have been discussing the possibility of starting a crowdfunding campaign to boost our budget. So I thought I’d put the idea to the test tonight. Who better than sailors would understand some’s desire to sail 4 oceans? At the end of the presentation, I asked for a show of hands for folks who would contribute if invited to help a crowdfunding campaign for our circumnavigation attempt. To my surprise, about half of the crowd raised their hands, which was both emboldening and encouraging. I know what I have to do next! And tomorrow I talk with a Class40 broker.
Use the Contact Us form if you would like to host Philippe for a presentation as well.
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